This study analyzes long-term drought trends around the Aral Lake, assessing their impacts on ecosystem and climate dynamics of the regions. Analyses conducted using Google Earth Engine revealed that drought has progressively intensified between 2000 and 2022, negatively affecting the ecosystem surrounding the lake. SPEI values reached their lowest level in 2021 at -2.3, indicating an increase in water scarcity in the region. NDVI and EVI data showed higher values in the early 2000s, while exhibiting a downward trend between 2017 and 2021, revealing a gradual weakening of vegetation cover. LST analyses showed that land surface temperature increased from 20°C in 2000 to 21.9°C in 2022. VCI increased from 0.44 in 2001 to its highest level of 0.62 in 2020, but then decreased to 0.57 in 2022, indicating increased sensitivity of vegetation to drought stress. TCI decreased from 0.47 in 2001 to 0.38 in 2022, revealing an increase in temperature stress. VHI, despite reaching its highest level of 1.3 in 2020, decreased to 0.8 in 2022. This situation emphasizes the importance of developing drought mitigation and water management strategies for the sustainability of agricultural activities in the region.
Drought, MODIS, Google Earth Engine, Aral Lake